OPINION

Very little changes in test match rugby.

It’s basically a simple game. Forwards win matches. Set pieces win matches. Winning tackle collisions wins matches. Accuracy and discipline win matches. Probably the only material new
contributor to success at test level is the game in the air. Kicking well and winning the contest for the ball in the air now matters more than it has at any other time. But you can’t use the weapon of recovering high kicks to maintain possession and move down the field if you don’t have the ball to kick in the first place. Or are scrambling behind a beaten set piece when the kicks are less accurate; the timing’s a guess.

So, nothing’s new. The All Blacks’ dismal loss to the Springboks in their last warm-up game before the tournament proves the point. It was inaccurate and ill-disciplined.

We were crushed in the set piece and in the tackle collision. The match has brutally laid out what is required to win the Rugby World Cup – a physical intensity we have displayed at times but only for relatively short periods. Most noticeably in the first 20 minutes of the first match against the Springboks in the Rugby Championship this year.

But we rarely sustain the kind of physical intensity the Springboks brought at Twickenham. Why? Because we don’t have to. After 35 minutes of superior physical intensity against the Springboks at Mt Smart earlier in the year, we led 20-3. The game was won. Thereafter the forward battle was pretty even; the Springboks actually won the second half 17-15.

So we are not used to playing long periods at peak physical intensity because in the past we have found if we play 20 or 30 minutes at that level, we can score enough points to put the game beyond reach. We can throttle back a bit and play out the match. The loss to the Springboks has shown this is not going to work in the big matches at the Rugby World Cup.

The big matches will be those against France, Ireland and South Africa. In my view, only these three and the All Blacks have a chance of winning the World Cup. Only these four can play with the physical intensity and accuracy to go all the way. I think it is fair to say the All Blacks rate number four among this group on sustained physical intensity and accuracy. So, we will either have to find a way to hold our physical intensity and accuracy for longer periods or score a lot of points when we are dominating up front for a briefer time. The second option is much riskier than the first, but we do know we can do it.

We will play either Ireland or South Africa in the quarter-final and, if we win, quite possibly the other in the final. If it is not one of these two, it will be France. So, there are two games in the tournament we will likely play, in which – unless we can sustain physical dominance for about 60 minutes or score a lot of points in a 20- or 30-minute burst of dominance – we will not win. It’s that simple.

David Kirk is best known as the captain of the All Blacks when they won the inaugural Rugby World Cup in 1987.